By Maria Clara Cobo, Linda Poon, and Fola Akinnibi
Local ballot measures and elections for mayor, sheriff and district attorney will shape the direction of US policy on issues from public safety to abortion.
Across the US, most voters deciding between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will make other choices, too — many of them local. A number of these races and ballot initiatives have resonance outside their region.
As the national candidates offer starkly different messages on immigration and crime, some of the most consequential actions will come from mayors, prosecutors and sheriffs.
On housing, controversial policies like rent control and homelessness policing will get a test from state voters on ballot measures.
And across various states and cities, voters will answer dozens of questions about the process of voting itself that will affect elections to come, from changing the way primaries work to ranked choice voting.
Below is a guide to some of the interesting state and local questions before voters. To track the votes on 60 state ballot initiatives — as well as the national races — visit Bloomberg’s US election results page.
Races to Watch
San Francisco: A Mayoral Race of Moderates
San Francisco finds itself at a crossroads heading into a mayoral race that’s prompted unprecedented amounts of campaign spending and animosity between candidates. It’s an uncertain time for a city that has long considered itself a bastion of liberal policy, as it experiences a rightward political shift in response to growing discontent over public safety and homelessness.
Incumbent Mayor London Breed — who was elected as the city’s first Black mayor in 2018 — has vowed to clean up homeless encampments, shut down open-air drug markets and combat rising crime with a tougher approach to revive San Francisco from its post-pandemic slump.
Two self-described moderate Democrats running on similar tough-on-crime platforms have deep pockets and powerful interests on their side. Nonprofit founder and Levi Strauss heir Daniel Lurie, a self-financed billionaire who’s spent more than $7 million of his own money, has been trying to set himself apart from the other frontrunners by constructing his own narrative as a City Hall outsider. Venture capitalist and former interim mayor Mark Farrell’s embrace of conservative law-and-order policies has resonated among frustrated residents fed up with the status quo. Holding up the progressive mantle is Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin, a longtime liberal bastion in city government. Supervisor Ahsha Safaí, a working-class advocate, has supported both progressive and moderate policies.
(Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, has donated more than $1 million in support of Breed’s reelection campaign.)
Portland, Oregon: A Wild West Election
Portland is the only major US city that had a commission form of government, in which councilors elected citywide are responsible for passing legislation and running city bureaus. That system, long criticized for fostering a fiefdom mentality and inadequately representing lower-income and nonwhite residents in this famously progressive city, will soon be a relic of the past. With this election, Portland is shifting to a more traditional mayor-council model, featuring an expanded city council elected by geographic district. Councilors will focus solely on policymaking, and the job of administering city bureaus will fall to a city auditor appointed by the mayor. On top of all that, Portland is debuting a new ranked choice voting system, with residents ranking candidates for mayor and city council in order of preference.
The government overhaul has imbued this election season with a Wild West feel. Dozens of candidates are vying for 12 spots on the new city council. And the scramble for mayor involves 19 candidates. The race is widely considered a referendum on how best to address the city’s stubborn homelessness crisis, as well as spikes in gun violence and the ongoing flight of downtown businesses. One of the frontrunners is city commissioner Rene Gonzalez, who is campaigning on a law-and-order platform. But ranked choice may help throw the race to Keith Wilson, a nonprofit founder and green trucking company owner who has never served in elected office.
Los Angeles: A Reformist Prosecutor Faces Backlash
Los Angeles County is the latest jurisdiction grappling with backlash to the reforms enacted after the 2020 murder of George Floyd. Incumbent District Attorney George Gascón, who has scaled back the use of cash bail and refused to pursue the death penalty, is running against a former federal prosecutor, Nathan Hochman, who has said he will pursue stiffer penalties for violent crimes and property crimes. The messaging from Hochman seems to be resonating with voters, and a poll before the election found him 30 points ahead of Gascón. California voters will also have an opportunity to vote for a ballot measure that would reverse a reform championed by Gascón that reduced punishments for shopping, theft and other property crimes. The race calls back to the successful effort to recall San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin, a progressive, in 2022.
Maricopa County, Arizona: An Arpaio Protégé Runs on Immigration
The Maricopa County sheriff’s race is a referendum on how the nation’s fourth-largest county will approach immigration enforcement. The Republican candidate, Jerry Sheridan, served as the second-in-command to Joe Arpaio, the county’s notorious former longtime sheriff who was convicted of contempt and then pardoned by then-President Donald Trump after detaining Latino residents without probable cause. Sheridan has expressed a desire to bring back an outdoor detention center that was shuttered after Arpaio’s ouster, one that the former sheriff called a “concentration camp.” His opponent, Democrat Tyler Kamp, is a former Phoenix policeman who has run on moving on from the federal court oversight that came out of Arpaio’s tenure.
Arizona: An Obscure Position With Major Climate Impacts
Races for seats on public service commissions don’t typically garner much attention, but this year, they’ve become a focus of climate activists in several states. That’s because these groups wield enormous power in determining energy affordability and the future of the country’s clean energy transition. Among other things, they regulate how much private utilities can charge consumers for services and how power is generated — via fossil fuels or renewable sources like wind and solar.
In Arizona, Democrats are vying to take control of the Republican-controlled Arizona Corporation Commission, which has three seats open on its five-member board. The current commission has drawn outcry from environmentalists for stalling the expansion of solar and approving the construction of two gas power plants without review or public comment.
Ballot Measures to Watch
Abortion After Dobbs
Two years after the US Supreme Court ended the federal right to an abortion, ten states have ballot measures to enshrine reproductive rights in their constitutions. Most measures seek to protect abortion access until fetal viability, or about 24 weeks of pregnancy. But in Nebraska, voters will decide on two dueling measures: one to protect reproductive access and another to prohibit it.
Reproductive freedom advocates are hoping to build on a record of success by ballot measure: While many states have passed new abortion restrictions through their legislatures since the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, they have not done so at the ballot. So far, voters in seven states have reacted to the end of Roe v. Wade by opting to restore and even expand Roe’s protections, including Ohio, Kentucky and Kansas.
“What we have seen since 2022 is this is a winning issue regardless of party affiliation, no matter the type of state it is,” said Chris Melody Fields Figueredo, executive director at the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, which advocates for progressive referenda.
Tips v. Minimum Wage
Proposals to raise the minimum wage have been a popular ballot measure topic with a record of success. After some of the worst inflation in decades, several more states will bring the question to voters this year — some with paid leave requirements, too.
The most closely watched wage measures are more controversial, affecting tipped workers like restaurant servers, who rely on tips to make up for very low base pay. If voters approve Question 5 in Massachusetts, tipped workers would see their hourly minimum wage gradually increase from the current rate of $6.75 to the state’s full minimum wage (currently $15/hour) by 2029. Proponents say it would ensure reliable paychecks for workers without relying on customers to subsidize wages. Opponents like the Massachusetts Restaurant Association argue the wage hike would lead to higher operating costs, lower income for servers and higher prices for consumers.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, which currently has a higher base pay for restaurant workers than many states, Proposition 138 would reduce wages. It would allow businesses to pay tipped workers $10.77 — less than the current $11.35 — as long as they receive a certain amount in tips.
Big Marijuana
This year legalizing recreational marijuana is on the ballot in four places. If one or more of them passes, pot will become legal in at least half of US states. But that doesn’t mean it’s no longer controversial.
In Florida, the measure to legalize marijuana elicited a record in campaign spending — more than any other ballot initiative this year, and far more than any other past marijuana initiative, according to Ballotpedia. That’s thanks in large part to one megadonor dispensary company, Trulieve, which alone contributed about $145 million to support the measure. One dominant opponent fought back: Ken Griffin, the founder of Citadel and Citadel Securities who has been wielding his fortune to influence Florida’s political landscape, spent $12 million to oppose the measure. But despite having an ally in Governor Ron DeSantis — whose administration ran public service ads opposing Amendment 3 — overall spending against pot legalization paled in comparison to Trulieve’s investment. That might be in part because even Palm Beach resident Donald Trump said he would vote in favor of legal marijuana.
Immigration: Arizona’s Bid to Co-opt Federal Power
Arizona voters will decide if the border state will join several others in an attempt to seize power over immigration from the federal government. Proposition 314 would allow state and local officials to take on a range of immigration tasks that would otherwise fall to national immigration authorities. Among other things, state judges would be empowered to issue deportations and local police would be permitted to arrest undocumented people they suspect of crossing the border outside of a legal port of entry. The state passed a similar law in 2010, but it was struck down by the US Supreme Court. A Texas law with similar provisions is currently embroiled in court challenges.
If passed, the Arizona law is also likely to end up in court. In its majority opinion, the Supreme Court suggested that the 2010 law could lead to chaos: “It is fundamental that foreign countries concerned about the status, safety, and security of their nationals in the United States must be able to confer and communicate on this subject with one national sovereign, not the 50 separate States.”
Elections and Voting
Several dozen ballot measures address democracy and the electoral process, the most in at least a decade. In particular, a record number of states are weighing questions that could bring sweeping changes to the way people vote.
Several states are considering measures that would replace closed primaries with open, nonpartisan contests that would allow voters to select any candidate, regardless of party affiliation. Those with the most votes will then advance to general elections, which typically select a winner based on who wins the majority of votes. Four states and Washington, DC, are looking to change that, too, with measures asking voters a move to ranked choice voting, in which voters order candidates by preference.
Supporters say these changes will bring better representation in a highly polarized America that has seen extreme candidates get elected. Critics call the process confusing, and say it could lead voters to choose candidates they don’t actually support. In Alaska — the first state to enact both open primaries and a ranked choice system for general elections — a ballot measure is seeking to repeal both.
Another contentious issue on the ballot this year is overt bans on noncitizen voting, which is already illegal under federal law. Amid unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud, Republican-led legislatures in eight states pushed through proposed constitutional amendments that make it clear only US citizens can vote, including in local elections.
Housing: From Rent Control to Policing Homelessness
With housing costs near all-time highs and a record number of Americans experiencing homelessness, voters will weigh tax and bond measures to help fund affordable housing programs. Two states will weigh more controversial initiatives.
In California, rent control is on the ballot for the third time in six years. Proposition 33 aims to repeal a state law that prevents local governments from enacting rent increase limits on most single-family homes and on housing built after 1995. Supporters say the measure will give city councils another tool to stem out-of-control housing costs. But opponents say it could have an adverse impact on the housing crisis by discouraging new construction.
Arizona residents, meanwhile, will vote on a measure that put pressure on local authorities to enforce the policing of homeless people. Proposition 312 would offer tax refunds to property owners who incur expenses from local authorities’ “failure to enforce” offenses like illegal camping, loitering and drug possession. The measure, which follows a June US Supreme Court decision that upheld a local ban on sleeping outdoors, is supported by conservative groups who disagree with the “housing first” framework that many lawmakers favor. Critics argue it would only put additional financial stress on the local government without solving the underlying factors that cause homelessness.